By L. Parsons Dr. Joshua LaBaer, Director of Arizona State University’s Biodesign Institute held a press teleconference last week outlining the prevalence of what is being called the Delta variant, a strain of coronavirus that has many experts concerned. “The Delta variant, first detected in India has become the dominate variant around the world,” LaBaer began. “My prediction is that if it is able to get a foothold here in Arizona, it will become the predominant strain here as well. Sequencing data from the state showed that up until mid-June we didn’t see a lot of the Delta variant. Then suddenly, it began to appear more and more. There is evidence from the labs that it will be within the next week that Delta will take over.” According to the Center for Disease Control (CDC), sometimes variants emerge and disappear and other times, new variants persist. Some variations allow the virus to spread more easily or make it resistant to treatments or vaccines. Those variants must be monitored more carefully.” Dr. LaBaer continued, “The Delta variant is even more transmissible than the Alpha or U.K. variant was and there is evidence to suggest it causes more severe disease. The reports we are hearing from other countries suggest that it also causes stronger disease in younger people. Now, that could be because they haven’t made it to vaccinating their adolescents yet, but either way, younger people are experiencing more severe disease.” It is worth mentioning that the vaccine does protect against that variant, according to LaBaer. “You can prevent the spread of this variant by just getting vaccinated, which is the important take home message. We have seen the vaccine rate in Arizona slow and we have seen that the best way to get ahead of these variants is to be vaccinated.” The cause of multiple variants LaBaer explained, “Is when they get into our cells, they take over the cells and trick the cells into making more copies of the virus. That copying process is error prone and mutations are generated. Sooner or later, one of those mutations will cause the virus to become more effective at transmission. As long as there is a lot of virus spreading, there will be an opportunity for these variants to generate.” Although the three approved vaccines for COVID-19 on the market do show effectiveness against the Delta variant, LaBaer still encourages vaccinated people to wear a mask if they are indoors around a crowd of people. He said, “The CDC says if you are vaccinated, you can largely stop wearing your mask. The WHO (World Health Organization) is recommending you still wear a mask even if you are vaccinated. If you are indoors in a crowded situation, probably not a bad idea to wear the mask. If you are outdoors, the risk of transmission is very low so you can not wear a mask. The data suggests that people who are vaccinated have an extremely low risk of getting the virus, but it does happen.” Daily cases of COVID-19 in Arizona have dropped. However, as LaBaer pointed out, they are still not ideal. “Right now our seven day trailing average statewide is around 500 new cases where it has been hovering for quite a while. From one perspective, that is great news. That said, it’s not ideal, we are much worse than the state of Massachusetts, worse than the state of New York and about the same as California, the most populated state in the country.” In Navajo County, Public Health Director Janelle Linn said, “Since early on in the pandemic, we’ve prepared for and expected the probability of multiple waves. Hospitals have done the same and are assessing and planning should we move into a third wave. Increased cases can impact hospitalization rates. At this time we are seeing hospitalizations but not at an alarming rate.” Dr. LaBaer continued, “We are also hovering at about 500 COVID related hospitalizations every day. If you’re unvaccinated, you have about a one in five chance of being admitted to the intensive care unit. The risk is still pretty high.” In conclusion, LaBaer said, “It is unlikely we are going to reach herd immunity any time soon as a planet. It’s going to continue bouncing around the globe. We are always going to have to adapt to that.” Primary care providers or the Navajo County Health Department can provide information on where vaccines are available. Currently, anyone over the age of 12 is eligible to receive a COVID-19 vaccine in Navajo County.
