By Nolan Madden Navajo County Emergency Management is the region’s tireless watchman. The team, which monitors and communicates real-time public crisis information year-round, scopes beyond city limits and calendar seasons with an eye on the county’s rural and forested areas to be well-prepared for rare emergencies, like wildfires. Wildfire season typically begins in April. And while two of the largest wildfires in Arizona history directly impacting Navajo County–the Rodeo–Chediski fire of 2002 and the Wallow fire of 2011–occurred during the summer months, experts say that immediate winter weather conditions determine a wildfire’s risk. In its National Significant Wildland Fire Potential Outlook report, unveiled on Feb. 1, the National Interagency Coordination Center states that current El Niño conditions will likely continue into the early summer months, indicating: * Higher probabilities for above normal temperatures for the far Southwestern U.S. for February through May. * Moist conditions over the past year for many areas have increased fine fuels, which could become available for pre-greenup lowland fires. * Concern for significant fire activity in the Southwest will be localized across lower elevations primarily during windy periods, where fine fuels are dormant. Navajo County Emergency Management Coordinator Catrina Jenkins explains why this month’s preparations are vital. “Especially with El Niño this year, we’re getting moisture, but we’re not getting snowpack. Snow packs down grasses and makes it harder for them to catch fire,” she related. “The snowpack is what melts slower, and so you have more ground moisture for a longer period of time than with just rain, or with small amounts of snow that quickly melt off.” Jenkins pointed out that similar conditions occurred within the county at this time last year, prompting wildfire concerns. Early vegetation growth is significant, she says, because it soon dries out after sprouting. “Just because we get snow now does not mean that the vegetation will not dry out by May. How badly it dries out is what will determine our fire management priorities,” said Jenkins. “Wildfire season doesn’t begin until late April. But we plan before that, so that we’re ready for it, and not just reacting to it.” She continued “We worry about winter preparedness starting in September, and we worry about fire season starting in February. And then it will be monsoon season, and we’ll focus on preparing people to be safe during that time of the year. Prepping, training, planning, exercising for a potential emergency; that’s what we do.”