While monsoon storms and rain throughout the year are important sources of moisture, snowpack accounts for approximately 70 percent of Arizona’s water supply, and once again snowpack levels are well below normal, including those in Navajo County.
A report unveiled in early February by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) notes that both snowpack and projected spring streamflow rates are “well below normal” statewide, with the Little Colorado River Basin having the worst projected streamflow at only 48 percent of the median.
Streamflow predictions are tied to snowpack, and the USDA report reveals that the headwaters for the Little Colorado River currently have a snow water equivalent of 37 percent of the median. Snow water equivalent is the standard method used to measure how much water the snowpack in a given area can be expected to produce when melted. Snow water equivalents are low across the state, with the Mogollon Rim at 24 percent, Verde River Basin at 31 percent and the San Francisco Peaks at 65 percent of the median.
The current snow water equivalent for the Little Colorado River Basin is approximately two inches. The median for February is five inches, with a typical peak in March of nearly seven inches. According to the report, the area did receive above-average precipitation in December and January, but it was not enough to bring the totals up to the yearly average.
“The statewide snowpack is also currently well below normal at 41 percent of median. There was very little snowpack accumulation during January until a storm system on the last two days of the month brought a few inches of new snow to the eastern portions of the state,” the report states.
While the Little Colorado River Basin is expected to have only a 48 percent streamflow compared to the median, other systems across the state will fare better, but only in comparison, as none are expected to come close to the median. The Salt River Basin is projected to have a streamflow at 68 percent of the median, while the Verde River Basin fares slightly better at 71 percent of the median and the Gila River Basin can expect a streamflow at 78 percent of the median.
Most of Arizona is expected to continue experiencing moderate drought conditions throughout 2015, according to a long-term drought status report prepared by the Arizona Drought Monitoring Technical Committee. Nearly all of Navajo County is listed as experiencing moderate drought, with the exception of the northernmost edge of the county, which is classified as abnormally dry. Only the southwest corner of Arizona is expected to escape drought conditions in the long-term, with Yuma and La Paz counties classified as not experiencing drought.
